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Churn Prediction & Retention

Know who's about to leave, why, and what will make them stay.

A churn and retention platform that predicts who is at risk and when, explains the drivers, and identifies which customers will actually respond to an intervention.

BankingTelecomSaaSRetail

01 · Overview

The decision was made weeks ago

By the time a customer closes an account or cancels a contract, the decision was made weeks earlier. Retention teams either react too late or spread discounts across everyone, including customers who were never going to leave.

Built with

  • Survival models
  • Reason codes
  • Uplift modelling

Deployment

On-premise, private cloud or in-region.

02 · How it works

Predict, explain, target

  1. 1

    Read the early signals

    Usage decline, payment delays, support contacts and sentiment, falling product breadth, and competitive signals.

  2. 2

    Predict if and when

    Gradient-boosted models predict churn probability; survival models estimate how long you have to act.

  3. 3

    Explain the driver

    Per-customer reason codes show whether it is price, service, product fit or a life event, which tells you which intervention to use.

  4. 4

    Target the persuadable

    Uplift modelling finds customers whose behaviour an offer will actually change, so budget isn’t wasted.

Reference architecture
  1. Usage, billing, supportPlus transactions
  2. Behaviour features200+ early signals
  3. Churn & survival modelsIf and when
  4. Reasons + upliftWho will respond
  5. CRM & campaignsOutcome feedback ↺

03 · Capabilities

Where it’s used

  • Bank account and card attrition
  • Subscription and contract renewal risk
  • Retail customer win-back
  • Relationship-manager prioritisation lists

04 · Outcomes

What we measure

Lower churn
Churn rate in treated vs. control group
Better retention ROI
Retained revenue per unit of incentive
Earlier intervention
Lead time between alert and churn date
Less wasted discount
Incentives given to customers who would have stayed

Example scenarios

Illustrative
  • Retail bankProactive relationship-manager outreach before account closure.
  • Mobile operatorTargeted offers for at-risk post-paid customers.
  • SaaS companyHealth scores that trigger customer-success playbooks.
  • InsurerRenewal-risk scoring ahead of policy expiry.

05 · Governance

Fair, measurable retention

Controls built in

  • Holdout groups to measure true lift
  • Reason codes on every prediction
  • Fair-treatment rules on offers
  • Model monitoring for drift after pricing or product changes

Technology

  • Python
  • XGBoost
  • LightGBM
  • lifelines
  • Uplift models
  • Airflow
  • PostgreSQL
  • Looker

06 · FAQ

Common questions

Do we need a data science team to use it?

No. Scores, reasons and recommended actions flow into your CRM or campaign tools.

How far ahead can it predict churn?

Typically 30–90 days, depending on how early the signals appear in your data. Survival models tell you how long you have to act.

How do we know the retention offers actually worked?

Every campaign keeps a holdout group, so you see the incremental effect rather than customers who would have stayed anyway.

Keep the customers worth keeping.

Start with a back-test on your historical churn.

Start a project